election forecast

Using National Surveys to Estimate Local Public Opinions: An Application of Bayesian Multilevel Regression Model with Post-stratification

Survey research in Taiwan almost always focuses on studying public opinion in the national level. Due to the potential small n problem for less populous sub-geographic units, scholars have not utilized national survey data to estimate public opinions in any local level (e.g., county, town, or village). To overcome this sample size limitation, we use a method combining the multilevel modeling approach with the population information for post-stratification.

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